News Center

Information Sharing|Zhang Yongwei: Ten Trends of China's New Energy Vehicle Industry in 2024

China EV 100 Forum (2024) Media Communication Meeting was held on December 27 in Beijing. Zhang Yongwei, vice president and secretary-general of the China Association of 100 Electric Vehicles (CAEV), talked about the development trend of China's new energy vehicle industry.

Zhang Yongwei believes that the development of China's new energy vehicle industry in 2024 will be characterized by ten aspects.

First, in 2024 China's new energy vehicles in national development and global status will be further enhanced.

Zhang Yongwei said, from a global point of view, China's new energy vehicles to change the road first, but is not a new energy vehicle powerhouse, is not the first advantage into an industrial development advantage, at present can not blindly jump to conclusions, "so next year may be the key year, we have to continue to expand the scale, continue to improve competitiveness, the first to become a leader we have the advantage of the leader. " He mentioned two weathervanes, new technologies being the first to be applied in China's auto industry and new models being the first to be launched in China. "This is the representative sign. The Chinese market may come to define what the next generation of cars is. That means the curator of the definition of the automobile is more in China, and this will have more and more weight."

From a domestic point of view, this year's automobile production and sales are expected to exceed 30 million, new energy vehicles reached more than 9 million, in the national economy, pulling investment, pulling consumption, and promote international development of import and export, "exports, investment, consumption in the troika carriages in the automobile industry has played a huge role, is an important driving force in our economic development, such a large volume can maintain sustained growth The automobile industry plays a huge role in our economic development, is an important driving force, such a large volume can maintain sustained growth, and has created a new record high, it is an important momentum of economic development. Therefore, the automobile industry, especially the new energy automobile industry in the national economy in the status and role of the unprecedented promotion of the economic power must have a supportive industry to serve as our pillar, so the new energy vehicles deserved." He said.

Second, the industry competition pattern into the depth of remodeling period.

Zhang Yongwei believes that next year is a more intense competition, the competitive landscape is more differentiated and reshaped year, "many companies may be out of the two years, into also into, if you do it may be a rapid rise, so 2024, 2025, for example, from the global view of the pattern, in terms of intelligence, is that China and the United States will become the two main protagonists, the smart car is the United States and China between PK."

From the domestic region, there are places where automobile production is very large, but the proportion of new energy is very low, it means that the pressure of transformation is greater, because the new energy penetration rate in the accelerated adjustment, "you the region to speak of this oil and electricity ratio should also be accelerated to keep up with, at least can not be lower than the national average, in order to be called the automobile province and automobile city. "

He also pointed out that corporate competition next year must be a critical period of the waves, industry reshuffling should accelerate, for many companies is the opportunity to grow, for many companies next year, the days are more difficult. "In the past, we rely on speculation, by eating a little ingenuity you want to realize the development is still possible, there is no real work in the future, in the new energy automobile industry is very difficult to mix, so we have to comprehensively enhance the competitiveness of the enterprise is the way to develop."

In addition to the joint venture, tomorrow and the year after tomorrow is also a watershed, some companies in the Chinese market to catch up with China's electrification, intelligent rhythm, you can continue to joint venture mode of development in China, some can not keep up with the electrification of the Chinese market, intelligent "two" rhythm, it will be difficult to continue to live.

Third, the enterprise development environment will show more involutional characteristics.

New models will be released intensively, a new model life cycle in the accelerated shortening, Zhang Yongwei said, in the past a car sold for 10 years, now a car can be sold for 2 years is considered very good, the single car sales scale is no longer an important goal of the enterprise, "the car has also entered the" Moore era ", 12 months The car has also entered the "Moore era", 12 months to 18 months must launch a new car product launch, the fight is the speed of innovation. The speed of innovation is the key."

In addition, the market is also changing, China's market is more diversified and personalized, "so the automotive industry due to the diversification, personalized consumption characteristics, from the attributes of the past consumer durables into the attributes of fast-moving products, like home appliances, cell phones, is a fast iteration of fast-moving products, these characteristics will be more and more strengthened. "He pointed out.

Fifth, the new energy vehicle market will still maintain high growth.

How much can the production and sales scale of new energy vehicles reach in 2024? Zhang Yongwei believes that 13 million units are still worth looking forward to, and the annual penetration rate is expected to be close to 40%.

Sixth, the internationalization of new energy vehicles will become a major highlight.

Zhang Yongwei believes that next year, the number of overseas trade in new energy vehicles will continue to grow to 1.8 million units. In addition, in the local investment, local production, local sales, sales of real estate will become the main mode of overseas, "so next year our internationalization should be in the overseas production, overseas sales of more and more highlights, coupled with our exports in the early stage of the process of climbing, so the internationalization of the trade will remain + overseas production will be a fast-growing trend, and slowly from trade to localized development of overseas investment. The main focus will be on overseas investment and localization. "

Seventh, new energy intelligent commercial vehicles will accelerate the transformation.

Commercial vehicles are the second half of electrification, China is a large country of commercial vehicles, with a possession of more than 30 million vehicles. Zhang Yongwei said that after passenger cars enter the orbit of self-rotating and self-driven development, the focus of electrification should be put on commercial vehicles to realize its green or new energy." In addition, one difference between commercial vehicles and passenger cars, it is post-electrification, and this post-electrification catches up with our intelligence. Therefore, passenger cars are new electrification, post-intelligent, commercial vehicles now show the characteristics of two synchronization, that is, both good electrification, but also catch up with the intelligent. "

Eighth, battery, chip, operating system and other landmark areas are expected to make further breakthroughs.

Zhang Yongwei believes that, from the perspective of technological innovation, these areas will continue to make technological breakthroughs in 2024, and some landmark technologies should be intensively applied to the car, so the speed of innovation will accelerate, and some of the iconic products and iconic technologies will continue to emerge.

Ninth, the intelligent driving application route is gradually clear.

Zhang Yongwei pointed out that tomorrow and the next two years, the application route of intelligent driving will be gradually clear, single-vehicle intelligence will develop rapidly, it is called the development mode of functional superposition." Do parking this year, next year may line parking one, may then add L3 lane following, plus assisted driving, constantly add some intelligent modules to you, this is the development mode of single-vehicle intelligence, ultimately to one day towards L4, everyone has been clear. "

Tenth, automobile and ICT, energy and industrial integration speed up.

In Zhang Yongwei's view, next year is another big year of cross-border, the automotive industry is becoming more and more cross-border, and ICT information and communication industry, energy industry integration will enter into a period of deep integration, "that is, you have me, I have you. From the automotive point of view we are the largest innovation integrator, new technologies are to be used on me. So jump out of the car to develop the car, from the integration point of view to promote mutual links between industries, mutual empowerment, is the automotive industry or China's industrial development is a very unique phenomenon. "